The Hindu-CNN-IBN Exit Poll

From The Hindu:

The Hindu-CNN-IBN Exit Poll, conducted by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies, has found that the DMK-led alliance has established a clear lead of 10 percentage points over the AIADMK-led alliance in terms of vote share. The DMK-led alliance is expected to secure around 45 per cent of the vote, as against 35 per cent for the AIADMK. This gap is sufficient to give the alliance a comfortable majority of anything between 157 and 167 seats in the 234-member Assembly. However, it is not enough to give the dominant partner, the DMK, a majority on its own. If this proves correct, it will be the first time that no single party has a majority on its own. Tamil Nadu looks set to have its first coalition government.

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10 comments: to “ The Hindu-CNN-IBN Exit Poll


  •  

    Stupid opinion pools are always opinionated

  • vijay

     

    In an exit poll no one is going to gain by projecting a particular party. If i conduct exit poll i will be more keen in prediting as close as possible and get a good name


  •  

    It was between chemistry and maths - N. RAM was telling the TV audience.

    Prepoll survey of CNN-IBN-HINDU was favouring AIADMK but Exit poll was different. Did you notice the analysis was out by 9.00PM the same day after polls. Even they kept telling it as surprise till the program end around 10.30PM.

    Star cameout within two hours. Times News within 3 hours. Sun TV around same time as Star TV. All striking simillarities. Add to this masala there was blockbuster & boxoffice hit "One India One Rupee" - BSNL Ad broadcast on all those TV channels.


  •  

    Okkk.. what does your free polls in your site reflect?


  •  

    ///Add to this masala there was blockbuster & boxoffice hit "One India One Rupee" - BSNL Ad broadcast on all those TV channels. ////

    Super Machi, All those tv channels are in favour of DMK just because of BSNL advt is it. Super o Super

  • Anonymous

     

    It is all over folks!!! Octogenarian Muthuvel Karunanidhi (MK) and its DPA alliance will be elected tomorrow. While reliable early polls predicted a close contest, the reliable recent opinion and exit polls are pointing to a landslide victory for DPA alliance. More importantly in this election, MK is drawing crowds more than that of the last Lok sabha elections when their alliance bagged all the 40 seats. It is even bigger than 1967 crowds when Annadurai and its DMK came to power. MK and DM is drawing more crowds in Ramnad district for the first time since MGR demise which itself is a great surprise. What is the reason for this sea change? Is it a temporary election phenomenon? Are the old DMK followers coming back home to say farewell to Octogenarian MK by electing him and his DMK one more time? Are they come to see next generation DMK leader Dayanidhi Maran (DM)? Are they attracted by the leftist DMK election manifesto? Whatever may be the reason here is the rating of the politicians in Tamilnadu based on the performance so far:

    1. Bill Clinton of Tamilnadu: Dayanidihi Maran (DM) – He is connecting with the old and the young, rich and the poor. He is the most sought person within DMK party for speaking in public meetings. He was invited not because he is the grandson of MK, but he comes across as a sincere politician, interacts with ordinary folks, and displays a demeanor of that of an educated young man capable of accomplishing things. He is not a old style great Tamil orator but he communicates well and connects with the public. He will be the next CM of TN 6 months to a year from now. He will contest in Chepauk constituency replacing his grandpa. I really don’t know whether DM has really threatened the Tatas or not. (Hey, Tom Delay - the Hammer was doing it for years in Washington exactly this - nobody called it that it is a crime). Threatening for a piece of his business is not a crime – it is a business tactic. Even if it is true, to me, it is a positive point because he is not afraid of the giants. Tatas, Birlas and Ambanis of the world (and by the way they are not Gods) have became rich and monopolized various industries in the last 50 years (with the help from congress and BJP govts) exactly doing what DM is accused of. DM’s performance in the Centre (IT sector) for public good and inviting Bill Gates to Intel Chief to TN is a laudable act. If he does the same thing in TN as CM that would make TN a heaven for new ‘low’ and ‘high’ wage employment. I haven’t seen a single politician like him in any major parties in TN for his polished public relation and lobbying skills. (Even P Chidambaram lacks these skills.) This is a great asset for TN. Don’t underestimate it. Voters see him (DM) as their next CM. Therefore, I call DM as the Bill Clinton of TN because he clearly connects with the masses during this election. I do not relate the personal failures of Bill Clinton with that of DM of which he has none sofar.

    2. Mario Cuomo of Tamilnadu: MK Stalin – Had DMK won the election in 2001 he would have become CM. But not now. (Mario Cuomo lost his chance to become President of USA by not running in the weak Democratic primaries in 1992 when Clinton won.)

    3. Robert Rubin of Tamilnadu: P Chidambaram – Capitalist minded but forced to defend MK’s leftist DMK manifesto. (Robin Rubin – a capitalist treasury secretary of Bill Clinton defended some of the socialistic fiscal policies of Bill Clinton and succeeded while doing so)

    4. Howard Dean of Tamilnadu: Vijaya T Rajendar – A colorful speaker

    5. John Kerry of Tamilnadu: Jayalalitha - Finally, she displayed her weakness in political skills. You can’t endorse (indirectly) your opponent’s poll manifesto. You can’t be against it (Rs 2/kg rice) before you are for it (10kg free rice). This is the turning point for this election. Voters didn’t care about whether MK is going to give Rs. 2/kg of rice or not. They used this criteria to evaluate which politician is sincere or not. This major goof combined with the absence of friends surrounding JJ made her look insincere. Moreover, folks - in politics you need friends. (John Kerry lost it to Bush ever since he made the big flip-flop statement on a Senate War vote)

    4. Sour grapes: Maran brothers and their family SunTV business have become an issue in this election. SunTV was started by Kalanidhi Maran when the DMK was in Opposition in both in the state and in the centre (1990-92). He took risk and succeeded in his business. As a smart businessman, he expanded his business in the entire south India with a variety of 14 channels in different languages and monopolized the business. The entire south India Cinema industry stalwarts like AVM who had a large library of films slept on the wheel while Maran was succeeding with SunTV. They or any one in the movie industry could have started this business. They didn’t. That is why now after looking at Maran’s success, from the TN movie producers to fellow DMK and other politicians (VaiKo, Sarathkumar, Vishu etc); they were all envy of him. Give him credit when it is due. Kalanidhi Maran succeeded on his own to become a giant in this satellite TV business. So far there is no SPECIFIC complaint that he used illegal political influence to start or expand his business. Becoming a successful business man is an achievement not a crime. (In our Indian culture, most of the time we don’t appreciate when a person succeeds – immediately we ascribe it to some kind of undeserved ill-gotten wealth.)


    5. VaiKo – a colossal failure: I had high regard for the DMK MPs of the 1962-67 era. Annadurai, Murasoli Maran, Vaiko, Nanjil Manoharan, Era Chezhian, Dhandapani etc were all educated MABL lawyers and they were the only ones who spoke in the Lok sabha about “State-Autonomy” issues in those days. Compared to the then ruling congress party MPs, these guys were dedicated young guys who had enormous knowledge in the Center-State issues area. This VaiKo could have become a central minister along with Murasoli Maran under Vajpayee. He chose not to join the ministry even when his MDMK MPs became ministers. Had he joined and performed, he could have made a name for himself. But, he didn’t. He can’t blame MK for this. He had a direct contact with Vajpayee. Later, he could have become a Central minister again under Manmohan Singh. First he refused. Then when he wanted to become a minister, his quota was taken by DMK according to him. Why he didn’t utilize the opportunity when it was first given. He can only blame himself and he can’t blame MK for this again. Now he is envy of Dayanidhi Maran because he made a name for himself as a central minister. He is indecisive and consistently doesn’t make right political decisions (probably because of L Ganesan). That way he is a colossal failure and a major disappointment..

    Finally about MK: In spite of all the bad verbiage thrown against him over the years, a considerable percentage of voters who once supported him is coming back to him because of his sincerity. At this age of 83, voters don’t think that he is doing it for personal gain or for his family business. The voters think that he is sincere and that is why he released a extreme leftist poll manifesto. These voters also think that he might deliver the promises either through his grandson or son.
    Here is the prediction. DPA: 195 others: 39

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