Thuglaq 'Cho' Ramaswamy, one of the most noted political analysts in Tamilnadu, has given an interview in Rediff. Thuglaq did a survey, which was NOT statistically rigorous, and gives ADMK 60% of the seats.
These are the interesting things I find in the thuglaq survey (if you can call it that):
Now that the leaders of both the fronts have started campaigning, how do you assess their chances?
I think the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagham has an edge over the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagham.
Is it a slight edge?
I wouldn't call it a slight edge. The Hindu seems to find that the results may go either way as the edge that the AIADMK has is too flimsy to be relied upon. Our reporters also have gone around 100 constituencies in the state. But we don't have any statistical method or any scientific basis for all this. Our reporters just talk to people and get their feedback. We have been doing this all along, and most of the time, we have been right.
What we have found out is, the AIADMK front will get around 60 percent of the seats, and the DMK front may get the rest.
We also differ with the Hindu poll about Vijayakanth. We find that he will poll more percentage of votes than what The Hindu says. The Hindu gives him 5 percent but we feel that he may get around 10-15 percent.
Arithmetically, the DMK front is stronger, isn't it so?
The Congress, the Pattali Makkal Katchi and the Communists could be expected by the previous polling records to contribute 15-20 percent to the DMK alliance. So, arithmetically they are far superior to what Jayalalitha has because her front has only Vaiko who would contribute about 5 percent and Thirumalvalavan, maybe 1 or 2 percent. So, arithmetically the DMK front is very strong. If we just go by adding the percentage of votes of each party, the DMK should sweep the polls as they did in the Parliamentary elections.
- The thuglaq method can be easily brushed aside given that it has no statistical validity, but for its pedigree. If any group knows its politics and political landscape well, it is thuglaq.
- Cho expects Vijaykanth to get 10-15% of the votes, but Vaiko to contribute only 5%. So, Vijaykanth is a much bigger political force than Vaiko is.
- This survey too finds no major anti-incumbency factor against Jayalalitha. That alone would probably be enough to get ADMK back to power.
- The biggest loser in this elections will probably be PMK, according to Thuglaq. The major sufferer of this election probably will be the PMK because people supporting Vijayakanth in the northern belt had voted for the PMK in the last election. I find that difficult to believe. I don't think the caste votes will be eroded by a newcomer in just one election. Even if there is erosion, I think it will take a couple of elections for it to happen.