பார்த்ததும் படித்ததும்

"இந்த தேர்தலில் மக்களிடம் உணர்வுபூர்வமாக தன் திட்டங்களை எடுத்துச் சென்றவர் கலைஞர். அதற்கு அறிவுபூர்வமாக வடிவம் கொடுத்தவர் சிதம்பரம்." - சன் டிவியில் தா.பாண்டியன்.

ஐயா, உங்க கூட்டணி ஜெயிச்ச நேரத்தில போயி இந்த மாதிரி கலைஞருக்கு அறிவில்லை, சிதம்பரத்துக்கு தான் இருக்குன்னு சூசகமா எதுக்கு பாலிடிக்ஸ¤ பண்ணறீங்க :)

"தமிழகத்தில் ஆட்சி அமைக்கப்போவது யார்?" - தினத்தந்தியில் இன்னும் காணப்படும் ஹெட்லைன்ஸ்.

நல்ல வேளை, "வை.கோ இன்று அ.தி.மு.க கூட்டணியில் சேர்ந்தார்"ன்னு போடாம updatedஆ இருக்கீங்களே.

"இந்த வெற்றி கலைஞரின் பழுத்த அரசியல் அனுபவத்துக்கு கிடைத்துள்ள வெற்றி" - ரஜினிகாந்த்.

இமயமலைக்கு போகாம இன்னும் இங்கே தான் சுத்திட்டிருக்கீங்களா? இந்த தேர்தல், அரசியல் இதெல்லாம் உங்களுக்கு எதுக்கு? போங்க, போங்க, சிவாஜி ஷ¤ட்டிங்ல 18 வயசு பொண்ணோட டூயட் பாடிட்டு, "உப்பிட்ட தமிழ் மண்ணை மறக்க மாட்டேன்"னு பஞ்ச் டயலாக் அடிங்க, போங்க. வீணா இப்படி அறிக்கை எல்லாம் விட்டு உங்களை நீங்களே பெரிய ஆளா நெனைச்சுக்காதீங்க.

"மக்களின் தீர்ப்புக்கு தலைவணங்குகிறேன். அதிமுகவுக்கும் கூட்டணி கட்சிகளுக்கும் வாக்களித்த வாக்காளர்களுக்கு உளமார்ந்த நன்றிகளை தெரிவித்துக் கொள்கிறேன்." - ஜெயலலிதா.

அட, தேர்தல் வாக்குறுதிகளை எடுத்தா மாதிரி இதையும் கலைஞர் கிட்டே இருந்து எடுத்திருக்க வேண்டியது தானே. அப்போ தான் மக்களை சொரணை கெட்ட ஜென்மங்கள்ன்னு எல்லா திட்டியிருக்கலாம்!

A look at the results

The full set of complete results can be found here.
DMK+ 163
ADMK+ 69
DMDK 1 (Vijaykanth)
Independent 1 (Ramachandran from Thalli).

From a cursory glance, this is what I find:

1. However ADMK and their cronies try to spin this, this is a big vote against Jayalalitha and her government.

2. DMK's vote share has gone down from ~31% to 26.5%. I guess this is mainly because of the fewer seats that they contested in.

3. The biggest gainer in terms of vote %age is Congress.

4. Stalin won by just 2400 votes.

5. S.R.Balasubramaniam (Cong) lost.

6. After wild predictions, DMDK has won 8.33% of the votes. They should be more than satisfied with that performance. Now, we can see Gaptun reel out his statistics in the assembly.

7. MDMK won 6. If they had remained in DMK fold, I don't think they would have won many more!

8. For all the hoopla, Karthik's Forward Bloc won 0.31% of the votes. Now Karthik can go back to Ooty. Hope he paid off his debts.

We had lots of fun doing the live blogging. The huge number of hits to the site was also encouraging. Thanks!

Hot Hot Cartoons






Cartoons by Vaitheegan.

Election Results Live Blog - Page III



DMK set to form a coalition government!

This is the open thread for the election results. We will be blogging live through the day, as results keep coming in.

Please post your comments/opinions/any updates/Links/results in the comments section. I will keep updating this post frequently with the latest results. The times are in Indian Standard Time.

Update 12:30 pm: Kitkat has been posting the results in each constituency as they come, in the comments section below.

Update 12:15 pm: The results are out in full flow. NDTV has some serious issues with its coverage. It is claiming that Vijaykanth lost, but all other sites are marking him as the winner.
DMK has won the elections. Let's see what happens next.

Update 11:55 am: IBN TV says that Jayalalitha is holed up in her Poes Garden home and is refusing to come out or meet with anyone. Only one person, some Jothi, has gone in and is allowed to meet JJ.
The three cartoons that you see in this post and the previous one are exclusively for HMH by Vaitheegan.

Update 11:45 am: DMK - 161, ADMK - 71 (NDTV).
Baddar Sayeed (ADMK) has won in Triplicane. ADMK has managed to get quite a few seats in Madras, traditionally a DMK stronghold.
Vasanth & Co Vasanth has won.
G.K.Mani(PMK) has won.
Senkottaiyan(ADMK) has won.
Karunanidhi has won. Looks like this time, he will have to come to the Assembly :)
K.N.Nehru has won.
Nanmaran and P.T.R. have won in Madurai.
NDTV has corrected itself and is saying that Anbazhagan won from Harbor.

Update 11:30 am: Rediff seems to be ahead of the curve. It is projecting 235 leads/results out of a maximum of 234 :)
Jayalalitha declared won. ADMK has won in Saidapet. Vijayakanth, Stalin, PTR have won.
More results are here.
IBN TV has not updated its numbers, but is concentrating on the West Bengal elections instead.
Dinamalar has DMK - 157, ADMK - 74, DMDK - 1, Others - 2.

Update 11:05 am: NDTV says that Vijayakanth is leading in Viruthachalam, and Anbazhagan lost!!!! SunTV says he won, though. Strange Machi Strange!

Update 10:55 am: O.Panneerselvam, D.Jayakumar, Durai Murugan have won.
Alankulam DMK- Poongodhai
Mannagrgudi - CPI - SIvapunniyam
Mudhukalathur - DMK- Murugavel
Seranmadhevi - Congress
Thiruvaarur - DMK- Madhivanan
Madhurandhagam- Cong- Gayathri Devi
Morappur- DMK-Mulaivendhan
Arcot- PMK-Ilavazagan
Palayankottai- DMK-Moidheen Khan
all won.

Update 10:50 am:
DMK party - 91
ADMK party - 70
MDMK - 8
PMK - 18
VCK - 2
Cong - 29
CPI(M) - 7
CPI - 5
This is from IBN TV.
Thamizmanam's supposedly live election page is still showing 69 to DMK+, 34 to ADMK+.

Update 10:40 am: Valarmathi trailing to BJP's H.Raja.
ஜெயா டிவிலே 'பள்ளம் தோண்டி' ரபி லைவா பேசறாரு! But, he is just repeating the positions where ADMK is leading.

Update 10:25 am: NDTV says Anbazhagan is trailing!

Election Results Live Blog - Page II



DMK set to form a coalition government!

This is the open thread for the election results. We will be blogging live through the day, as results keep coming in.

Please post your comments/opinions/any updates/Links/results in the comments section. I will keep updating this post frequently with the latest results. The times are in Indian Standard Time.


Update 10:25 am: NDTV says Anbazhagan is trailing!

Update 10:20 am: Baddar Sayeed (ADMK), Vasanth Kumar (Cong), Peter Alphonse, Durai Murugan, PTR Pazhanivel Rajan, D.Jayakumar, Paruthi Ilamvazhuthi, Ponmudi, G.K.Mani, S.R.Balasubramaniam - all are leading - NDTV.
So, it looks like in Chennai, a traditional DMK stronghold, Baddar Sayeed and S.Ve.Shekar are leading from ADMK.
IdlyVadai points out that Veerappan's wife is trailing. Yabbaa!

Update 10:10 am: DMK 136, ADMK 84.
Looks like Karthik's All India Forward Bloc is not leading in any constituency.
Mikeset sez: இந்த எலெக்ஷன்லேந்து தெரிஞ்சுக்க வேண்டிய ஒரு விஷயம், நடுநிலைமையான மீடியா எவ்வளவு முக்கியங்கறது? ஒவ்வொருத்தனும் அவன் கட்சி சார்பாவே எலெக்ஷன் ரிசல்ட் கூட சொல்றான். சன் டிவி, ஜெயா டிவி எல்லா கருமாந்திரமும் அதே மாதிரியே தான் இருக்கு!
Vaitheegan points out that the "scientific" free poll in our site is also changing. HmH poll mArudupa..mArudhu...

Update 10:05 am: DMK 134, ADMK 82 - IBN.

Update 10:00 am: PMK seems to be a loser in this election.
Mikeset says: அமைதி அமைதி - உண்மையான நெலவரம் பார்க்க பார்க்க, கலவரமா இருக்குங்க! இந்த சன் டிவி, லொட்டு லொஸ்கு (ஏன் ...இட்லி வடையையும் சேர்த்துக்குங்க!)...இதெல்லாம் பார்த்து, உதய சூரியன் மலை மேல தெரியுதுன்னு நெனச்சா, இரட்டை இலையும் ஒண்ணும் அவ்ளவு மோசம் போயிடலை போல இருக்கே. அம்மாவும், (சோனியா) அன்னையும் ஒரு வேளை கை கோர்த்தாங்கன்னா....அதிமுக ஆட்சிக்கு ஒரு வாய்ப்பு இருக்கு போல! கூட்டி கழிச்சு பாருங்க...கணக்கு சரியா வரும்!

Update 9:55 am: Viduthalai SiruththaigaL leading in 2.
DMK party - 74
ADMK party - 64
PMK - 9
MDMK - 7
Cong - 24
CPI - 5
CPI(M) - 7
- IBN TV.

Update 9:50 am:
DMK party - 75
ADMK party - 62
Cong I - 23
CPI - 5
CPM - 7
DMDK - 2
MDMK - 7
- IBN TV.
Winners:
Ilayangudi- DMK-Kannappan
Harbour- DMK-Anbazagan
Madurai south- Marxist Nanmaran

Update 9:45 am: MDMK is leading in 5. All set to make their Assembly debut!

Update 9:40 am: According to NDTV, DMK 126, ADMK 76.

Update 9:35 am: According to Jaya TV, ADMK 93, DMK 37, Others 2 :)))))
Sun TV - DMK 158, ADMK 58, Others 2.
IBN TV - DMK 108, ADMK 68, Others 5. Cong 15 (included in 108).
S.Ve.Shekhar, Arcot Veerasamy, Karunanidhi, Anbhazhagan are all leading. DMK by itself is leading in only 69 seats. So, note that the 108 number includes the allies.


Update 9:25 am: DMK 103, ADMK 64 - IBN. Is the tide turning?
Looks like Sun TV and Jaya TV are letting their biases show in their coverage. Jaya TV is only showing results on where ADMK is leading. Sun TV too is also fudging the results, apparently.
FlashNews is that Napoleon is trailing to S.Ve.Shekhar!

Update 9:15 am: DMK 157, ADMK 54 - IBN TV.
Napoleon, Stalin, Karunanidhi, Jayalalitha, Vijayakanth are all leading.
The Election Commission site is inaccessible as expected (wonder which IT firm was incharge of the site?).

Election Results Live Blog

This is the open thread for the election results. We will be blogging live through the day, as results keep coming in.

Please post your comments/opinions/any updates/Links/results in the comments section. I will keep updating this post frequently with the latest results.

Links:
Election Commission site
Chennai Online
CNN-IBN
IdlyVadai

Update 9:10 am: DMK 147, ADMK 55 - latest in IBN TV.
Leading losers of ADMK: Sengottaiyan, Panneerselvam, Miller.
"porapoka partha..AIDMK will not even get a child seat in their car" - Vaitheegan.

Update 9:05 am: DMK 105, ADMK 56.
This is direct from Sun TV. For some reason, Idly Vadai seems to be ahead of the curve (133-48) and inconsistent with the rest. Wonder where he gets his results from.
Meanwhile, Jaya TV is saying ADMK 96, DMK 33!!
Dinamalar, as usual is giving an ASP error.

Update 8:55 am: Sun TV says DMK 97, ADMK 47.
Kitkat says: Napoleon leads in Mylapore.
Vaitheegan is following CNN-IBN live.
Mikeset says: மைலாப்பூர்ல நெப்போலியன் லீடிங்கா?! இனிமே எஸ்.வி.சேகர் ஒவ்வொரு டிராமாவுலேயும் நெப்போலியனை அமெரிக்கா நாராயணனை விட நாலு வோட்டு அதிகமா வாங்கினவன்னு பீத்திக்க ஆரம்பிச்சுடுவாரே, அடடா! சரி...நம்ம ராஜேந்தர் மயிலாடுதுறைலே என்ன ஆனாரு? என்னை பீகார்லே உட்டா ஜெயிச்சுடுவேன், ஆந்திராவுலே வுட்டா அள்ளிடுவேன், கேரளாவிலே விட்டா கெளப்பிடுவேன்னுலாம் சொல்லிக்கிட்டு இருந்தாரே. மயிலாடுதுறையிலே மானம், மரியாதை இருக்கா...இல்லை அம்பேலா?!

Update 8:45 am: DMK 100, ADMK 33.

"Jaya TV says there is a ADMK wave..they lead in 42 , DMK 11" says an Anonymous. idhu thaandaa comedy!

"Just spoke to few company directors in Taiwan, they seemed upbeat. They have about a million open box tv in their godown [returned by Walmart]" - Vaitheegan.

Update 8:30 am: DMK 64, ADMK 13.
மைக்செட் முனுசாமி :- ரத்தத்தின் ரத்தங்கள் எல்லாம் கொஞ்சம் அடக்கி வாசிக்க, உடன் பிறப்புகள் ஆட்டம் போட வேண்டிய நேரமிது. இதே ரீதியிலே போச்சுன்னா.....மஞ்சள், பச்சையை முந்தி மந்திரிசபை அமைச்சுடும்டோ ய்ய்ய்ய்ய்ய்ய்ய்ய்ய்ய்ய்! எலெக்ஷன் கமிஷன் வெப்சைட் லோட் ஆகுறதுக்குள்ளே, கலைஞர் பதவிப்பிரமாணம் எடுத்து முடிச்சுடுவாரு போல :)
Kanimozhi Karunanidhi just spoke on CNN-IBN.

Update 8:15 am: DMK Leading 34, ADMK Leading in 7. Thiruvannaamalai, DMK Pitchandi won by 10100 votes .

Election Campaign Recap - II : Unasked Questions

I had written in the earlier section that the agenda for this election was set more by the politicians than by public opinion. This resulted in several important questions that went unasked and unanswered. These were the questions that needed to be asked, but unfortunately didn't get any time in this campaign.

1. The Srilankan Conundrum: With the escalating power struggle in Sri Lanka, what is going to happen in Tamilnadu? Will TN become a free passage for arms and supplies to the LTTE if DMK comes to power? What are the parties' position on refugees? What are the parties' position on LTTE? Did people forget the Padmanabha/Rajiv Gandhi killings?

2. The Cauvery issue: What will the parties do on the Cauvery issue (other than funding the actors all the way to Neyveli to cut off the power to Karnataka)? What was DMK's position on how the ADMK government handled the Cauvery issue? What would the DMK have done differently?

3. Past performance of the Karunanidhi Government: Surely, it was not all land of milk and honey when DMK was in power. Still, the performance of Karunanidhi governments, especially the one in the 90s went unquestioned. Karunanidhi had a field day talking about the ADMK manifesto and how much of it the ADMK government actually fulfilled. But, how about DMK? In the '96 elections, how many items that Karunanidhi promised did he actually deliver? As far as I saw, the only reference to past DMK governments was to the "roobaikku 3 padi arisi" promise some 35 years ago.

4. Government workers: I think the bulk of the people who are NOT government workers, would have supported the measures Jayalalitha took, to make the workers more efficient and accountable. The government employees got a jolt of their lives. Apparently, the complacency in the govt offices was reduced a lot due to JJ's actions. If this was the case, why was there not a call to do more of this? To make the govt more accountable and reduce the bureaucracy?

5. TV Campaigns: There is a limit set by the Election Commission on how much each candidate can spend. What about the propaganda on the rival television channels? Who pays for all that? How is it accounted? Does this kind of "soft contributions" go unaudited? The amount of political campaigning done in Sun and Jaya TV are unbelievable. A tamil new year kaviyarangam was a call to vote for DMK. Even in the Sun TV news, the "sonnadhu yaar" segment featured pro-DMK quotes!

6. Who killed Tha.Krishnan? What will the position of Communists/Congress either side of the border be on the Mullah Periyar Dam? How many people were actually arrested during the time the "Anti-forced conversions law" was in effect? Was that law misused, did it stop communal clashes? How was the ADMK government's performance on clamping down on the safety of schools after the Kumbakonam fire accident?

The Hindu-CNN-IBN Exit Poll

From The Hindu:

The Hindu-CNN-IBN Exit Poll, conducted by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies, has found that the DMK-led alliance has established a clear lead of 10 percentage points over the AIADMK-led alliance in terms of vote share. The DMK-led alliance is expected to secure around 45 per cent of the vote, as against 35 per cent for the AIADMK. This gap is sufficient to give the alliance a comfortable majority of anything between 157 and 167 seats in the 234-member Assembly. However, it is not enough to give the dominant partner, the DMK, a majority on its own. If this proves correct, it will be the first time that no single party has a majority on its own. Tamil Nadu looks set to have its first coalition government.

Election Campaign Recap - I : Three Strategies That Worked

The election campaign has officially ended; People are ready to vote. Now it is a good time to recap the undercurrents of this election campaign.

Usually, in a campaign, the bulk of the agenda is set by the people. As we go through the campaign, the media feels the pulse of the people and comes up with the issues that the people care for (through polls like "what is the most important thing in this election" etc). Candidates quickly latch on to this agenda and either ride the wave or shape public opinion if they are able to convince otherwise.

This election is a strange one, in the sense that most of the agenda was set by the politicians themselves. Issues that a common man might be interested in were barely discussed, and the main issues were the ones that the parties tried to project. I guess the main reason for this is the lack of a powerful independent/unbiased media. The media in this election was polarized more than ever, and this kind of ensured that the people's concerns were not given the prominence that they should have been given.

In this light, the strategies of each political party becomes extremely important. I think there were three main strategies that completely shaped up this election. Which of these will be the coup de grâce, I am not sure.

1. The DMK manifesto: The ADMK were going to town with the emphasis on the performance of their government. In reality, what did they have to show to the voters that would be instant positives? Not the way in which it dealt with the government workers (which I totally support and was sad to see it being painted in a negative light now). Not the ruthless manner in which people like Veerappan were "encountered" or Jayendrar was arrested. The main things that Jayalalitha could campaign on were her giveaways. Free bicycle. 2000 Rupees for those hit by the rains. Tsunami relief money.

In a powerful move, Karunanidhi countered it by promising more freebies. Free Color TV. Rice at Rs 2 a kg. 2 acres arid land to farmers (though the Sun TV ads wrongly (and knowingly) claimed "2 acres farm land").

The impact of these freebies were not obvious at first. VaiKo had a field day convincing people that these schemes would never work. Looked like people didn't believe that these could be done... till Jayalalitha followed suit.

By promising free 10 kg rice, Jayalalitha implicitly accepted that the DMK manifesto was a big hit and needed to be neutralized. I think it was a losing move politically and gave a lot of credibility to the DMK promises.

2. Shift of the evil, rich family tag: Think of what happened during the last time Jayalalitha faced an election when in power. The talk was on the rampant corruption in her government and the money embezzled by Sasikala and her family. Images of the vaLarppu magan's marriage didn't help. Sasikala, Bhaskaran, Sudhakaran, Dinakaran and all other karans in her family were painted as the people who swiped hundreds of crores of rupees. The vote in that election was also a vote against this powerful family.

Fast forward to this election. I don't think Sasikala and her cronies have stopped doing what they did before. I don't think her family has not earned a decent sum during the last five years. Yet, the tag of the evil, rich family went surprisingly to the other side, the one that was not in power in the state! Kalaignar's family, especially his Sun TV nephews, were branded as the money grabbers. The ill-timed Sun TV IPO didn't help. News that Dayanithi Maaran threatened the Tatas didn't help. Defectors like Vaiko, Sarathkumar and others bemoaned that DMK was catering to the interest of Kalaignar's family alone.

Whether the decision to target the Maaran brothers and their wealth/monopoly was Vaiko's or Jayalalitha's, we won't know, but it was a highly successful strategy. Instead of talking about the ruling party's corruption and embezzlement (who remembers any accusation other than the one on MIDAS?), DMK was forced to respond and keep up with the questions asked. Whatever be the outcome of the election, I think that DMK is stuck with the Sun Network tag, that it is trying to create a monopoly in the media, with a clear help from its people in the power.

3. The first two were straightforward, but the third strategy, whose importance I think we would see more after the election, is pretty subtle.

It can be summed up by this telling image in Dinakaran today. It is the last day of election campaign. Karunanidhi addresses a meeting with V.P.Singh. The photo that is there in the link is the one in the Dinakaran front page, covering the final moment of the campaign. Now, you see V.P.Singh, Karunanidhi and Dayanithi Maaran. Where is Stalin?

The third strategy that has influenced this election is the prominence given to Dayanithi Maaran and the lack of prominence given to Stalin. Dayanithi Maaran was the DMK's hero of this campaign. Issues were centered around him. DMK's main "achievements" at the centre were symbolized by his photos with Bill Gates, his BSNL One Rupee a call programme, and his involvement in pretty much everything. He was there at each and every occasion. Sun TV gave more coverage to him than Stalin. Even Dinakaran wrote that the manifesto was shaped up mainly by Dayanithi Maaran and Kalaignar.

Does anyone remember a single intelligent thing said by Stalin throughout this campaign? Vijaykanth jumped into politics yesterday and still, more people wanted him to be the next chief minister than Stalin.

I think this was a very deliberate decision by Kalaignar.

This can be interpreted in two ways: Either Kalaignar is underplaying Stalin, so that the voting public don't realize that they are actually going to vote for Stalin (he is the chief minister in waiting) and given his popularity, that will be a huge negative. Or, Karunanidhi has decided that Stalin is not his heir after all, and is grooming Dayanithi Maaran to usurp the leadership after his time.

Either way, what happened was that whenever the question of leadership after Karunanidhi came up, the question was not answered, or was evaded. So, is Stalin not the next head? Is Dayanithi Maaran going to play a more active role in the state politics?